Climate scientists worry about ‘gamification’ of extreme weather as Kalshi moves to verify weather trades

Will 2026 be the hottest year we’ve ever seen? You can bet on it—literally, on Kalshi. The prediction market platform is now partnering with The Weather Company, which runs both the Weather Channel app and weather.com, to verify weather-related trades. According to Kalshi, the move will provide “science-backed data” that allows both individuals and businesses to anticipate and manage “the ways weather and climate impact their daily lives.” People who visit The Weather Company’s app or website will also see Kalshi’s real-time probability data on those platforms, giving them “new ways to understand how markets are pricing weather risk.” To climate experts, though, verifying and legitimizing bets about the weather comes with some concerns. (Kalshi itself does not using the term “betting” for activity on its platform; it refers to all activity as “trading.” Similarly, Kalshi calls its sports contracts “swaps,” but a Nevada federal court, however, recently ruled that Kalshi cannot evade state gambling laws by using that term.) They worry, for instance, about the “gamification” of life-threatening weather events, the potential for manipulation and bad actors, and if placing bets on our …