Companies are running out of experienced CEOs

A recent paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) analyzing more than 50,000 CEO careers found that the average appointment age has climbed from 48 in the year 2000 to 55 today. The researchers suggest that increased economic uncertainty and the growing geographic and regulatory complexity of the role are pushing firms to prioritize “generalist human capital” (i.e., experience) over “raw ability.” One outcome of this corner office trend is that CEO, even more than it used to be, is becoming a career capstone rather than a career path. More and more executives will hold the job only once before they retire. First-timers accounted for 86% of public CEO appointments in 2025 and have held the majority by a wide margin since 2018, according to the executive search firm Russell Reynolds Associates. The firm also reports that the average CEO tenure is shortening—from 8.3 years in 2021 to 7.1 in 2025. The hollowing of the serial CEO pipeline is happening at an inflection point in artificial intelligence transformation. Our times call for a CEO who’s had to rethink strategy while bearing full accountability for the business’s performance, because they’ll have to do it aga…

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