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www.axios.com · Oct 20

Republicans see shrinking boost from redistricting

House Republicans are quietly scaling back hopes for the 10-seat boost they sought from redistricting nationwide, amid a souring political climate and polls showing a collapse in GOP support among Latino voters in Texas and Florida.Why it matters: On their down days, Republicans privately worry that the great redistricting war of 2026 will net them only one seat nationwide, according to top GOP strategists. Zoom out: At the beginning of the cycle, Republicans viewed redistricting like an umbrella in a storm: It could keep their House majority dry in a light drizzle — but in a political hurricane, it wouldn't be enough.They're not second-guessing the redistricting strategy, even as they wince at the price tag. According to AdImpact, Republicans have spent $133 million on TV ads trying to win in 15 redrawn districts that were supposed to be easy pickings.Still, they no longer talk seriously about redistricting saving their House majority, as they did a year ago — before the Iran war helped boost inflation and sink President Trump's approval ratings.By the numbers: Early this summer, Republicans believed they had created 16 more GOP-friendly seats: five in Texas, four in Florida, two…

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