The housing market is sending a troubling signal about what’s coming next

One key measure of housing activity fell to the lowest level in more than two decades in September, as higher mortgage rates are keeping buyers at bay. Pending home sales, which measure the number of signed contracts on existing homes, slumped 7.3% in September from August and were down 11.3% from the prior year, according to data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors. The report is but the latest confirmation that the housing market is cooling—and particularly in once-hot markets in the South and West. To blame for weakening conditions are “fast-rising” mortgage rates, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the Washington, D.C.-based trade group. Since late-February, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been rising, but the move was particularly sharp in September, when it surged from about 6.9% to as high as 7.6%, according to Mortgage News Daily. “Although job growth and income gains can support home purchases, housing affordability is more affected by changes in mortgage rates,” Yun said in a statement. While there may be reason to be optimistic that mortgage rates could be topping out—that’s because they’ve already risen more than the Federal …

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