Look past AI’s hype cycle to understand what sticks

Despite the succession of state laws and school board regulations banning the use of artificial intelligence in classrooms, the AI education market shows no signs of slowing down. For one, it expanded from $150 million in 2021 to $730 million in 2026, and experts estimate it will reach $18.5 billion by 2036. New technologies almost inevitably follow a hype cycle including massive excitement over the potential, followed by a rapid decline (known among market analysts as the “trough of disillusionment”), before the technology is finally adopted for the right purposes, for the right audiences, and in the right ways. At that point it’s reached the so-called “plateau of productivity,” where best practices have been established and it’s easier to differentiate which products and programs offer the best ROI. In education, the stakes to get technology right are particularly high, making the hype cycle difficult to navigate. Schools need to be good stewards of tax dollars and savvy spenders of limited budgets amid this initial flood of excitement. But they shouldn’t be so conservative with spending that they fall into the trough of disillusionment and prevent students from accessing tools …