Why even the smartest people on the planet can think really dumb things

Not too long ago, I listened to tech investor Jason Calacanis on a podcast. He confidently made a number of strange assertions, including that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could easily be resolved with some land swaps and that the U.S. government had no business regulating mergers and acquisitions because it can’t predict the future. Nobody with deep expertise in Eastern Europe or antitrust law would make either claim so casually, but there he was, confidently asserting simple solutions to complex problems. It reminded me of Bethany McLean’s classic, The Smartest Guys in the Room, which chronicled the incredible rise and disastrous fall of Enron. The funny thing about Enron is that, at one point, they really were the smartest guys in the room. Early in my career, I worked on a natural gas trading desk and the Enron operation was top-notch. Their problem was arrogance, which led them to make big bets on things they barely understood. Clearly, we’re seeing a similar hubris playing out in Silicon Valley today. When success breeds overconfidence In Careless People, former Meta executive Sarah Wynn-Williams describes the Silicon Valley executives she worked with as so wealthy and power…