PrimeXBT Insights: Bitcoin rallied through a rate hike; Can it rally through a bond selloff?

By Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT In mid September the setup looked bad for Bitcoin. The CLARITY Act failed in the Senate on 15 September and the Fed hiked to 3.75 to 4.00% the next day. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly traded under $75,000. A week later it was above $87,000. Then the bond market moved, and Bitcoin stopped going up. What happened in bonds On 23 September the 10 year US Treasury yield jumped more than 18 basis points, the biggest one day rise since April 2025. It kept going and rose above 5.2% the next day, the highest since 2007. The 30 year reached about 5.50%, a level last seen in 2004. There was no single trigger. Strong PMI data, a weak five year auction and higher oil all played a part. The Treasury even bought back $4 billion of long bonds on 24 September, and yields still rose. Why the hike didn’t matter much Everyone saw it coming. By the eve of the meeting, futures markets priced the hike at close to 90%. Some of Bitcoin’s weakness in the weeks before arguably reflected that repricing. ETF flows show it. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $750 million over 15 and 16 September, then took in $2.39 billion in the week to 25 September, their biggest week si…

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