Despite the hype, innovation isn’t getting any faster. Here’s why

Today it’s become an article of faith that everything moves faster. Business pundits tell us that we’re living in a VUCA world (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous). These are taken as basic truths that are beyond questioning or reproach. Yet are things actually moving any faster than in earlier eras? The evidence is surprisingly scarce. Certainly productivity isn’t growing any faster. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that productivity growth today stands at about the post-war average, significantly slower than the period before 1970. At the same time, an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank found that business dynamism is decreasing while average markups are increasing. The problem, as I noted in my book Mapping Innovation, is that innovation isn’t an event, but a process of discovery, engineering and transformation—and it’s the last part that takes the longest. History shows that it takes decades to go from a breakthrough to a measurable impact, because figuring out how to put a new idea to good use is much harder than people realize. The 40-year wait for electricity’s economic payoff In 1882, just three years after the legendary development of his light bulb, Thoma…